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Date Posted:
Nov/12/2004 3:39 PM
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Ugh... I can't believe I'm doing this already. I still haven't recovered from Tuesday... Well, here goes...
New YorkRepublicans would love to see Hillary Clinton go down, but she's too strong an incumbent, what with New York being such a strongly Democratic state. Pataki is her most likely opponent, but New Yorkers are a bit weary of him, and are satisfied with having a Clinton still serving them. Often you hear the nonsense about a Hillary Clinton run for the presidency in 2008, but that ain't gonna happen. Hillary Clinton would take New York and maybe five other states in such a race, but she's such a polarizing figure she'd never make it to the White House, and I'm sure she knows it. Pataki's possible presidential bid won't go anywhere, either; the man's problem is that he's both too conservative and too liberal.
New JerseyJon Corzine has been speculated on this week as a possible candidate in New Jersey's gubernatorial election next year. If he wins (which would be likely,) he'll have to appoint a replacement to finish the last year of his Senate term. I'm not sure who that would be, nor am I sure whom the Republicans would be likely to put up. Come what may, that would make for a competitive seat in New Jersey that year.
PennsylvaniaRick Santorum is a fundamentally weak candidate who really doesn't sit too well with many Pennsylvanians. He's been lucky, though. In 1994, the Year of the Angry White Male, he was elected during the Republican Revolution, and it was something of a squeaker then. In 2000, he was challenged by Democrat Ron Klink, who ran a lousy, disorganized campaignand it was still close. If the Democrats can put up a strong candidate, Santorum could be bumped right out of there. Joe Hoeffel ran a decent campaign this year, with his big problem being that he was up against Arlen Specter, a popular moderate Republican who's widely respected by all Pennsylvanians of both parties. As a native son of Pennsylvania and a partisan Democrat, I have to say I'd have trouble voting against Specter, myself. Santorum, however, is quite another story.
FloridaBill Nelson is a first-term incumbent in a swing state. I haven't looked into who the candidates might be, but this one's probably going to be tight, just based on that fact.
TennesseeI know it's a very Republican state, but last year Bill Frist announced his intention to retire after his term ends in 2006. Frist is probably going to run for president. Regardless, that makes this seat an open one. If the Democrats run Harold Ford, they might have a good crack at winning it. I don't know who the Republicans have waiting in the wings.
OhioMike DeWine, like Bill Nelson, is a first-term incumbent in a swing state, which makes this race possibly competitive. He's also a Republican shill in a state with plenty of Democrats in it. Fingerhut might run again, and I think Tim Ryan would make a good candidate. The Democrats definitely have a chance here.
WisconsinI've heard Herb Kohl talked about as a potentially vulnerable candidate, but I don't know. Can anyone help me out with this one?
MissouriFirst-termer Jim Talent will have served four years by 2006. He squeaked in in a tight race in 2002, when Bush was scaring everyone about Iraq. Some say that the demonizing of the mourners at Senator Wellstone's funeral helped to put this one over the top. Though Wellstone was from Minnesota, right-wing attacks on the mourners were used to fuel the Talent campaignas well as the 2002 Thune campaign in South Dakota, which was close. Who will die this time so that Jim Talent may stay in Congress? I don't even know who the Democrats have to run, so Talent's potential vulnerability may well be moot.
NebraskaThe very fact that Ben Nelson is a Democratic Senator in Nebraska necessarily makes his seat competitive. It's Nebraska, so no matter how conservative Nelson may be, he's effectively in a tight race.
HawaiiDaniel Akaka is getting up there. I don't know how his health is, but I keep expecting one of the Hawaiian senators to retire every time. I've been consistently wrong, but one of these years, I'll be right. We'd probably see another Democrat follow him to Capitol Hill; it's just a matter when.
There may well be other seats that are competitive, but it's still early in the season, so my knowledge is still a bit patchy. I have no clue about House seats; I'm more of a Senate expert. I'll probably read up on which seats are most vulnerable; there are some representatives I'd really like to see gone, not the least of which are Pennsylvania's Phil English and Melissa Hart, Bush sycophants both who work against the greater interests of their districts.
All Senators up for reëlection in 2006:
ArizonaJon Kyl (R)
CaliforniaDianne Feinstein (D)
ConnecticutJoe Lieberman (D)
DelawareThomas Carper (D)
FloridaBill Nelson (D)
HawaiiDaniel Akaka (D)
IndianaDick Lugar (R)
MaineOlympia Snowe (R)
MarylandPaul Sarbanes (D)
MassachusettsJohn Kerry (D)
MichiganDebbie Stabenow (D)
MinnesotaMark Dayton (D)
MississippiTrent Lott (R)
MissouriJim Talent (R)
NebraskaBen Nelson (D)
NevadaJohn Ensign (R)
New JerseyJon Corzine (D)
New MexicoJeff Bingaman (D)
New YorkHillary Clinton (D)
North DakotaKent Conrad (D)
OhioMike DeWine (R)
PennsylvaniaRick "Man-on-Dog" Santorum (R)
Rhode IslandLincoln Chafee (R)
TennesseeBill Frist (R)
TexasKay Bailey Hutchinson (R)
UtahOrrin Hatch (R)
VermontJim Jeffords (I)
VirginiaGeorge Allen (R)
WashingtonMaria Cantwell (D)
West VirginiaRobert Byrd (D)
WisconsinHerb Kohl (D)
WyomingCraig Thomas (R)
110604
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A conservative is just a liberal who hasn't needed a second chance yet.
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